Sunday, December 3, 2023

The Year Without a Winter?

You may have noticed that the temperatures in many parts of the world are much higher than usual for this time of the year. In fact, some places are breaking records for the warmest December ever recorded. For example, in New York City, the average temperature for December 2023 was 55°F (12.8°C), which is 12°F (6.7°C) above the normal average. In London, the average temperature for December 2023 was 53.4°F (11.9°C), which is 7.9°F (7.9°C) above the normal average. In Tokyo, the average temperature for December 2023 was 56.3°F  (13.5°C), which is 5.6°F (3.1°C) above the normal average. As I write this, the temperature here is currently 35°F and next week the temperature will be flirting with fifty degrees. In Minnesota. In December. This is unheard of.

These are not isolated cases but part of a global trend. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2023 was the second warmest year, after 2016. The global average temperature for 2023 was 2.2°F (1.2°C) above the pre-industrial level, which is the baseline for measuring the impact of human-induced climate change. The WMO also reported that the past six years, from 2018 to 2023, were the six warmest years ever recorded.

This is not normal, and this is not natural. This results from human activities that emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. These gases trap heat and cause the Earth’s temperature to rise. The greenhouse effect is the main driver of global climate change.

Climate change is not just about rising temperatures but also about changing weather patterns. One of the consequences of climate change is that the seasons are becoming more extreme and unpredictable. For example, some regions are experiencing more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and floods, while others are experiencing more severe and prolonged cold snaps, snowstorms, and blizzards. These extreme weather events can devastate human health, food security, water resources, biodiversity, and infrastructure.

The unseasonably warm weather we’re having for December exemplifies how climate change alters our seasons. It may seem nice to have a mild winter, but it is not good for the environment or us. A warm winter can disrupt the natural cycles of plants and animals, such as flowering, fruiting, hibernating, and migrating. It can also increase the risk of pests, diseases, and invasive species, harming crops, livestock, and wildlife. It can also reduce the amount of snow and ice, affecting the availability and quality of water, as well as the recreation and tourism industries.

The unseasonably warm weather we’re having for December reminds me of the opposite phenomenon that occurred in 1816, which is known as the Year Without a Summer. That year, the global temperature dropped by about 0.7°C (0.7°C) due to the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia, which spewed large amounts of volcanic ash and sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. This caused a volcanic winter, which blocked the sunlight and cooled the Earth. The result was a series of crop failures, famines, epidemics, and social unrest worldwide.

The Year Without a Summer was a natural phenomenon, but the Year Without a Winter is a man-made disaster. We are the ones who are causing the Earth to warm up, and we are the ones who are suffering the consequences. But we are also the ones who can do something about it. We can reduce our greenhouse gas emissions by using renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, and adopting low-carbon lifestyles. We can also adapt to the changing climate by enhancing our resilience, preparedness, and cooperation. We can also support the global efforts to combat climate change, such as the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global temperature rise to well below 3.6°F (2°C), preferably to 2.7°F (1.5°C), above the pre-industrial level.

The unseasonably warm weather we’re having for December is not a gift but a challenge. It is a challenge to act now and together to save our planet and ourselves. It is a challenge to think long-term and globally to protect our future and our children’s future. It is a challenge to be responsible and hopeful, make a difference, and make a change.